Strategic Overview

The city has an estimated population of 147,720 as of 30 June 2021 (NRS 2021 Mid-Year Population Estimate). It is projected that the population aged 25-44 years will increase by 4.7% in Dundee City during the period 2018-2028. However, the overall population is now forecast to have a slight decrease over the next 20 years by about 0.6%, with an 11.2% change in the early years and school age 0-15 group.

When compared to the average population share, Dundee City has a larger share of its population who are aged 18-37 years. Dundee has a sizeable student population (circa 30,000), being home to the University of Dundee, Abertay University, Dundee & Angus College and Al Maktoum College. Dundee City also has a slightly larger share of the very elderly population. Life expectancy in Dundee is lower than for Scotland as a whole.

As set out for the Dundee Partnership in the development of the City Plan 2022 – 2032, a comprehensive City Profile for Dundee has been developed to give a clearer understanding of the current and future health, social and economic needs of our population and inform the identification of our priorities.

Dundee, like many urban areas, has major social challenges to overcome and maybe the greatest challenge is to create the fairer society where no one is left behind or grows up in poverty. As the report of the Social Renewal Advisory Board, set up by Scottish Ministers in 2021 asks, “if not now, when?”.

The city has the highest 5 year rolling average rate at 45.2 per 100,000 population of drug misuse deaths in Scotland, and pressures around poverty and mental health remain significant. This is a major priority for the Dundee Partnership in the City Plan.

In Dundee, 36.6% (54,497) of the population live within the data-zones ranked in the 20% most deprived in Scotland. This includes 43.8% (10,506) of children in Dundee.

The demographic pressures the Council faces are the noted increase of 12.4% in the 65-74 aged population and 8.5% increase in the over 75% population, and there is also a pressure on the Scottish Government to prioritise spending growth in the health and care service. During the period of this plan the National Care Service will be created to address this. This will be a major change for people as well as the Council’s resources.

The Council is aware of these challenges and is striving with its partners to address them and to increase the pace of change. This plan aims to demonstrate more clearly the social impact of the Council’s investment and of prevention and early intervention initiatives on inequality and poverty, particularly in the less advantaged areas of the city.

It also aims to move from incremental to transformational change across all its services, and, in particular, in education, make quicker progress in narrowing the attainment gap for more vulnerable or disadvantaged children. This will build on the investment in the attainment challenge, doubling early years education provision, more free school meals, free bus travel for all under 22 and, and actions to drive forward Scotland’s national mission to end child poverty. Dundee participation rates for 16-19 years in work, education and training is amongst the lowest in the country. Ensuring a positive post-school destination for all 16-19 year olds is essential, particularly care experienced young people and those in SIMD 1 areas.

The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) is the official tool for identifying the most deprived areas in Scotland. “Deprived” does not just mean “poor” or “low income”. It can also mean people have fewer resources and opportunities, for example in health and education.

The 2020 SIMD shows that Dundee has 70 data zones which are in the 20% most deprived in Scotland, the fifth highest in Scotland. 36.6% (54,497) of Dundee’s population live within these areas, 66% of those people are of working age. This includes 43.8% (10,506) of children in Dundee.

Poverty can be exacerbated by discrimination due to disability, race, religion, sex, LGBT or age. Evidence across a range of issues such as attainment, health, mental health and substance use highlights a strong correlation between poverty and poorer life outcomes.

Economically Dundee is fulfilling the vision of attracting talented people and becoming a vibrant and attractive city where people choose to live, learn, work and visit. The challenge is to maximise the potential opportunities and create inclusive growth that benefits the whole population.

The Council works extensively with local, regional and national partners with the aim of growing the economy and creating new job opportunities, ranging from semi-skilled and skilled to professional, academic and managerial.

The £1 billion Waterfront project provides a platform to attract new investment and jobs. The addition of the Dundee V&A has placed Dundee on the global tourist map and will continue to be an asset alongside the city’s other attractions including the new Tay Cities Deal funded Discovery Dome attraction at Discovery Point. To create inclusive growth the city needs to convert its economic opportunities into jobs and wage growth for Dundee residents who are either inactive, unemployed or on lower than the average wage.

After the publication of the last Council Plan 2017-2022, the Council recognised the serious and accelerating environmental, social and economic challenges posed by climate change and declared a climate emergency in June 2019. To respond to this challenge, Committee agreed a science-based target for working towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 or sooner for Dundee and published its Climate Action Plan, in November 2019.

Climate change reporting is now mandatory across the public sector in Scotland, reflecting the expectation that the public sector will lead by example in tackling climate change. The Council’s latest Public Bodies Climate Change Duties (PBCCD) Report is available to view on our website.

The Council reduced its carbon emissions by 11% in the past year, with emissions from energy use in buildings down by 11%. Looking further back, our overall carbon footprint is down by 49% compared to 2007/8. Energy consumption in Council buildings is down from 32,163 tonnes CO2 in 2015/16 to 20,001 tonnes CO2 in 2020/21.

But there is still much more to do if we are to continue to play our part in tackling the climate emergency. The Climate Action Plan is full of practical solutions to reduce emissions from energy use, transport and waste as well as adapting to our changing climate, and will guide future spending and resource decisions.

Dundee has one of the highest concentrations of Electric Vehicles (EVs) of any city in the UK, with the Council’s fleet of nearly 200 EVs being the largest of any local authority and representing 27% of the overall fleet. Dundee City Council continues to progress its EV transition to E-mobility in-line with government targets.

Addressing Climate Change is also reflected in seeking to be a leader in the development of the new jobs associated with transitioning to a low carbon economy, through initiatives such as the Michelin Scotland Innovation Park. The long-term vision is for Dundee to become a Sustainable City, that plays a leading role in Scotland’s goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 or sooner.

Quality of life for the citizens of Dundee remains one of the key priorities of the City Council. Over many years communities have been transformed with new housing, schools, community facilities, play areas, etc, building a strong sense of pride and satisfaction within neighbourhoods across the city.

The Council is committed to further regeneration as set out in our Capital Plan for 2022- 2027. In addition, to support the strategic regeneration of the city we also continue to invest in a range of funding at a very local level and communities can influence how it is spent. Attracting private sector investment to support regeneration and new housing is a key opportunity.

Evidence gathered via Engage Dundee and other surveys shows that our commitment to improving communities is improving the quality of life of our citizens. There is a clear positivity relating to satisfaction with quality of life in local neighbourhoods and in Dundee.

The Council, in common with others, has a major financial challenge. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic and now with the increasing inflation rates and the Cost of Living Crisis, the Council’s Medium-Term Financial Outlook and Strategy estimates the Council is required to make up to £74m savings by 2026/27 to achieve a balanced budget each year. This is on top of the £147m savings realised since the financial crisis of 2008.

For the purposes of financial planning, it is assumed in the Medium-Term Financial Strategy that demographic change and service demand will be contained within service areas with departmental resources directed towards city priorities set out in the City and Council Plan.

In order to deliver on the social, economic and environmental priorities, the Council must transform itself by harnessing digital technology, new ways of working, workforce planning and being open to working with and empowering communities to work with the Council. This will include community wealth building, community hubs and participatory budgeting to find a range of new community powered services that can deliver on the economic, environmental and social outcomes while recognising the limits of the Council’s budget.

A key feature of the Medium-Term Financial Strategy is savings and efficiencies will be driven by transformation and service prioritisation and resources will be prioritised to improve outcomes. The Council will seek to achieve an overall outturn in line with or below budget.

The Council will continue to work with the Scottish and UK Governments, as well as partners, to maximise investment or opportunities for additional funding that will support the delivery of our priorities.

Our Council has a strong local and national reputation for providing good quality and effective services to our citizens. We have performed well, as highlighted in our Best Value report, despite the significant financial challenges, the pandemic and increased demand for our services.

Whilst we have made many changes and demonstrated innovation in the way we provide services over the last decade, much more needs to be done. We need to maximise the digitising of processes and functions, remove duplication throughout the Council, invest in new technologies and ways of working, create a multi-skilled flexible workforce and do everything we can to ensure that our teams have the right skills and environment so that they can thrive and provide the best possible services, whilst balancing the budget each year. Employees remain the Council’s biggest asset, accounting for around £262m (65%) of the net revenue budget. The Council’s People Strategy and workforce planning is therefore crucial to supporting the changes needed to deliver the Transformation and the Medium-term Financial Strategy.

How the Council shapes itself to empower people, manage finances and make the best use of technology and other assets over the next five years will be a significant challenge and opportunity.

During the life of this plan the establishment of a new National Care Service will see structural change in care and Council services. This is likely to be the most significant change to local authorities since re-organisation in the late 1990s. The services in scope for this change amount to 33% of the Council’s budget and that is not including the additional corporate property and support costs associated with these services.